Bolton: Your Predictions And Bias Projection

BORO haven’t won at Bolton for 27 years – Bernie grabbed a late winner in a 1-0 win in April 1987 that kept Brucie’s boys on course for promotion and Bolton for relegation – and we haven’t won at all at the Big Fat Sam Memorial Hoofodrome. We’ve been battered there, robbed there, thrown away two goal leads there and fallen asleep watching snoozathons several time. And it is always freezing.

So tonight… time to break that hoodoo, dump an appalling record in the dustbin of history and bounce back from the semi-derby disappointment of Leeds and resulting drop in morale with a  resounding win to top up those foam fume levels again.

I’m going for a determined 2-0 grind.  Kike and Tomlin. And now that I’m taking flak for publicly  standing up for Tomas Meijas I want him to save a last gasp penalty too.  Time for you to make your predictions, and script how the game plays out – a debut for Bamford? – and be straight on here after the whistle to gloat/offer mitigation/demand the gallows building resumes. I’ll get my own thoughts up as soon as humanly possible.

Meanwhile, Boro have accepted a £175,000 offer for Richie Smallwood.  The Dormo Destroyer has signed an emergency loan so he can feature tonight against Watford with a view to talking terms on a permanent switch tomorrow. Any thoughts on that?

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34 thoughts on “Bolton: Your Predictions And Bias Projection

  1. I will go with 1-1 draw to complete the set of win lose or draw.

    Re:Tomas Meijas, I think a cross looks more threatening than a penalty. If he catches a cross in the last minute, I will be happy.

  2. 2-1 to Bolton – my early season optimism was always hanging by a thread

    A shame about Smallwood, useful squad player, but probably better for him to move on so that he can play more regularly

  3. To say I was gutted after Saturday is an understatement. I still feel pretty sore and disappointed. The turning point of the match as everyone knows was the disallowed goal and Boro have to shrug their shoulders and be a bit more professional about this and not let things distort their game plan.

    As for tonight, well it’s a chance to put things right and I hope Tomas has another chance to prove himself and for our RB to get fitter. I still believe in this team after watching the Boro for over 40 years I still think this can be our season to go up. I only hope we get Jelle Vossen as well as Bamford to really put pressure on places.

    One thing that pleased me on Saturday was Alberts performance He was playing with a smile on his face again and hopefully he will start producing his match winning performances again .
    I shall be glued to the radio tonight UTB

    Fat Bob

  4. AV, are you ahead of the official Bamford signing. Nothing on MFC, or Gazette, only your throw in line about debut tonight?

    I am assuming you know and cannot say, otherwise egg all over face.

    Also see my last post on last thread.

    Only 175K for Smallwood, thought he would be worth a little more than that.
    I guess he is not going to get much game time here unless we have lots of injuries/suspensions.

    Best of luck though seems a nice lad and a honest player.

  5. Lets go for a Bolton 2 v 1 win with all 3 points staying at the Macron Stadium. Hope you guys enjoy the game but not the result…. Come on you WHITE MEN!

  6. I’m optimistic but will tone it down to a 2-1 win. Just hope the Stewards remove the pitchforks and burning torches in the case of Mejias retaining his place.

    I still think a “rib injury” is the best prognosis for the lad, an early flap tonight and it will be us nicknamed the “Trotters” not Bolton.

    On the Dormo Destroyer I think it was on the cards but like Curtis Main its best in the long term for their careers. They can go and prove themselves and get game time. Sitting on the bench or being nudged off it in preference for a Loanee is no good for anyone. I hope he goes on and proves himself and achieves all he can in the game.

  7. It’s very difficult to predict anything in this league but I’ll go for a win. Fired up by the disappointment at the weekend, with Clayton desperate to impress, I think we might be able to get at Botlon better than we did Leeds. 2-0.

    Smallwood leaving is a shame but I see it as further evidence of the club moving forwards.

    In recent years Smallwood was the perfect squad player – cheap, honest and capable of “doing a job” when called for without complaining too much when he was (regularly) left out. He never sparkled but equally let no-one down. That isn’t good enough anymore. Two good options are required for every position and Richie just hasn’t quite shown enough.

    That’s a shame but we should view it as a positive sign that Karanka does not want “squad players”.

    1. Somebody a couple of articles ago mentioned a google chrome add-on called Zenmate that changes your proxy server and should allow you to listen to. But it doesn’t seem to work for me… (is it working for anybody else?)

      Either try that or i’m afraid we have to stump up some more cash on top of the licence fee to listen to BBC radio brownlee via BORO+

    2. Shaun,

      Subscribe to Boro+ or do what I have done a few times when I’m working away. I get my fiancé to FaceTime me or Skype me from Stockton, place her iPhone or IPad next to the Radio and listen from there. You do need wi-fi at both locations to make it work though. Apart from that I don’t think there is any other way unless your located near to the Bolton area and you listen to the match from their perspective.

      Hope that helps

  8. After Saturday I’m very wary of making bold predictions, so I’m erring on the side of caution and going for a 2-0 Boro win…….

  9. I think that a point would be a good result so I’m going for a return of Boronil in an uneventful snoozeathon.

    Smallwood’s move is good for everyone. I love him for his effort but don’t think that he’s good enough for a team with aspirations of getting out of the division. I just hope we’ve stuck in a sell on clause.

    On Meijas, I have to say that I was sat behind his goal (in disguise) and my first instinct was disappointment that the defense hadn’t followed the shot in. Still, doesn’t excuse the fact that he should have pushed the shot away from goal rather than try to hold it. It’ll be interesting to see if Bolton target him with crosses tonight.

  10. Afternoon Boro fans,

    Well I would take a point from tonight. Anything less than that would have a lot of people reassessing any optimism they had after the Oldham match. 4 points from the next 2 matches should be a minimum but we all know you don’t need a good start to get promoted, Reading proved that a couple of seasons ago. I don’t think we will get beat tonight but I hope we can be a bit more decisive in the final third.

    I would keep Abella at right back but I have a feeling Hines might be back in tonight. I think Clayton will start in place of Whitehead too with the rest of the team the same. I would like to see Karanka let the wingers swap flanks if we are not having much luck, Reach always looks dangerous coming in from the right and has got a lovely left foot shot on him. If we go behind I would also like to see Nsue being brough on at right back which would make us more offensive, he has experience there.

    On the Dormo destroyer leaving, I must admit I though we would get at least double what we are apparently getting but it’s another player of the wage bill. There is now another place available in the squad, I suppose Whitehead will fill in for Leadbitter & Clayton. Karanka said he wants 2 players for every position so does that mean a promotion for Bryn Morris? I doubt that, maybe Chalobah is coming back? I have heard his name touted at possibly going to a Premier league team but letting Richie go does leave more questions than answers I suppose. Maybe Lewis Baker will take his position in the squad but I’m not sure if he is an attacking midfielder or a defensive midfielder. Maybe he is more flexible than Smallwood, all will be answered in time I suppose. I wish Ritchie well at Rotherham, he never let the team down whilst he was here but never managed to cement a regular place in the team down. He had his chance with 2 or 3 managers here so a move to another club where he may get more game time is a natural progression for him. I sent my friend who is a RUFC fan the link to the Gazette earlier on and he responded by saying for that price he is a good addition to their squad but he wasn’t convinced he would be a definite starter, I don’t know if they’ve improved in that position over the summer but their manager definately fancies him.

    My head says 1-1 tonight but my heart fancies a 1-0 win. I can’t wait to be chewing all my nails off later on, I wouldn’t have it any other way though.

    Up the Boro

    1. Regarding transfers JRF it’s all very simple. Just follow your basic Armada Maths (El Arithmetico.)

      Chelsea lads> Local lads

      Chelsea Lads + Spanish Lads = Progress

      but,

      Spanish Keeper < Useless

      so,

      Promotion prospects = 0

      1. PP

        I understand the sentiment but since Downing and AJ we haven’t produced any up and coming Academy stars. Market demand would indicate that York, Bradford, Hartlepool and Rotherham are where our starlets are fawned over and that sadly is reality. Once given their head at these clubs you would think that they would receive rave reviews and offers from all over but thats not the case. They invariably end up back here and eventually moved on for a pittance.

        I would much rather see a Boro kid than a Chelsea kid but I’d much rather see Boro win ultimately and thats not going to happen with the sparse talent we have presently. Chelsea offload their surplus to other Prem sides, European sides or Championship sides. Omeruo has just come back from the World Cup, how many Boro lads (I wish and hope) are even remotely close to that scenario.

        Taking Bamford as an example he started off with MK Dons then finished the Season a step up with Derby, we are scrapping for his services whilst we realise he may be holding out for a Premiership Team to take a gamble on him. Christian Burgess has just gone to Peterborough, Richie to Rotherham, Brobbel to Hartlepool and like as not Luke Williams will join him shortly. None of those players have been coveted at the same or higher level elsewhere (Richie a possible exception in the same division at least with Rotherham). The Juke and Emnes are the possible exceptions and we couldnt wait to get rid.

        Spanish Players abound in the Premiership the supposed best league in the world (which I doubt) but how many English Players start in Spain (let alone Boro players). Indeed how many English Players even get a start in the Premiership these days? Gareth Bale (albeit that he is actually Welsh) is probably the only example of the top of my head that bucks that trend.

        I do think that Chelsea Players + Spanish Players = Progress. I didn’t hear any complaints when we had a huge influx of foreign players in the past all speaking different languages from the four corners of the globe (Dong Gook Lee and Alves apart). Some were good, some were mediocre and some were brilliant yet at the same time we had our best Youth Production coming through ever, a lot of whom are still cutting it in the Prem.

        I do fully agree about the keeper but I suspect that’s more to do with an uncomfortable penny dropping and face saving (no pun intended) than nationality.

  11. You stick to your guns AV, I’d hope we weren’t the kind of club to drop a player after one dodgy performance – that’s not the way to build a side. If over a number of games he proves he’s not up to it then fair enough but shotgun decisions get us nowhere…

  12. So, excuse me for being stupid, but explain the nuances of the scenario, we want a person, his employer is agreeable to a loan period, how can the person refuse or perhaps wait to see if a better offer comes along.

    If I am told by my employer I am being seconded, end of story, either move or leave, surely it is not a pick and mix shop, seems like it

  13. Richie Smallwood should have played at Oldham then our midfield players would have had more energy for the Leeds trip. Whitehead and Ledbetter ran their socks off against Birmingham that was what we needed at Leeds but they had both put in another hard shift at Oldham. Richie is limited, however he deserved a fairer crack of the whip. To let him leave now for only £175.000 without a replacement seems a bad decision. Hopefully we will have good sell on clauses as I feel sure he will move on to a bigger club soon.

    As for the keeper, Sorry the lad is not good enough. Bring back Shay Given. If we do not sign a quality keeper we can forget promotion.
    Up the Boro

  14. After 35min on Saturday ,Leeds ran us ragged (get real people),which is a concern,there where gaps all over,,the subs made it worse. The discipline was not there ,when we could have settled for a point, Smallwood,gone?,ok,but he was a player who stuck to instructions,if whitehead was tired or Reach,then Richie would have been a better option in that case,changing to a solid three in the middle.

    Tonight Im sorry,we will lose,Bolton have experience,and right now were a half hour team, Reach and Adomah,will not help us out of this division, just no finished product on a consistant basis,

    1. Adomah constantly gets into good goalscoring positions, not to mention puts in a defensive shift as well. Top scorer last season with 12 goals and second top assists with 6. Together he was involved with almost 30% of all our goals scored last season(62)! I can’t seem to agree with you on this! Adomah is definitely what we need to get promoted!

      1. Albert has qualities ph,they all do,but does he worry teams every game,Reach cant go past anyone,so you defend him by giving him room to the left and ask him to go along the wing ,where you run him out of options,yes if you stand off five yards he can whip a cross in.
        Don’t get me wrong I want us to win everygame,I just compare us to other teams that get promotion

  15. I think the televised sting from Saturday, sharpened by a kicking from AK, will be enough for everyone to up their game tonight. I won’t hide the fact that I think Dimi should start though. I fully understand the ‘trust the people closer to the heart who get paid to make decisions’ position. But we did have a clear policy of ‘competition’ for all positions, backed by ‘poor display, the other guy gets a chance to shine’ as a pragmatic process to keep everyone on their toes.

    Technically the better keeper or not, Tomas should now be rotated while he improves his game. Thems my feelings. Sorry to see the Dormo Destroyer move in that he is an honest player who never let us down. But he won’t win us promotion either, and if financially he is a luxury that we can’t afford, good luck. That does sound like some space clearing for more incomings though…………all v quiet on that front now, but then look what happens when the detailed mechanisms are all exposed, a la Clayton! We want it all ways…….I guess we’re just typical supporters after all. Foamy 2-0 to Boro tonight, Redcar Rock to be red-carded. I can dream…..Up the Boro

    **AV writes: Competition is good. People howling for blood after three games is bad. And short-sighted. Unless you know much about Spanish B League football I don’t see how anyone is really in a position to make a definitive judgement on Meijas. Or any player.

  16. I see Burgess has now departed for Posh. I wonder if the “Emergency loan” is exactly that or the prelude to a permanent transfer?

  17. I will go for a 1-1 draw. Never won at their new stadium.

    Sad to see Dormo to go to Rotherham but he never won a place at the team. Perhaps best for him. As Burgess leaves for Posh, too we still might see a few leaving to balance the books. And some youngster gain experience on loan.

    I hope I am wrong and we win today. Up the Boro!

  18. Oh I am going all gaga or maybe rara, but I think, or possibly hope, that the team wants to put things right after Leeds, and they will need to if promotion is to be the aim, we cant afford too many lost games to be in the top two.
    Not going to predict anything other than a win for us, with an OG from Wheater.

    Smallwood and Burgess…well I suppose again that if they arent forcing their way in like some other names have, then maybe they aren’t for the boro long haul, its going to take time for the academy to produce the quality thats needed at first team level, but the whole club needs to go up a few levels in all areas, Karanka is leading this push from the field, so by the end of the season you may get served and with what you actually want in the concourse within the half time period!

  19. Well I’m a bit perplexed by Ayala starting on the bench, but I can only imagine he has a niggle of some sort.

    Nothing I can really add on Smallwood. He is a decent player but not quite good enough to usurp Leadbitter or Clayton. We can only wish him the best of luck and hope he makes it to the PL later in his career.

    I’m going 2-0 to the Boro tonight with Kike getting one of them.

  20. Well I wasn’t far off at all !

    I went 2-0 with Kike scoring, but it turns out we have them a fighting chance by allowing them a first goal. Again though, it was not a great performance from the team. Let’s just hope we are seeing a bedding in process with our myriad of new players and returning youngsters like Reach.

    Talking of youngsters: I have just read that the Burgess move to Posh is actually permanent rather than the one month loan that was announced earlier. I have seen that he signed a four year deal. I’m a bit surprised by that, as I thought he was well regarded within the club and would be kept for the long term but loaned out again for this season. Obviously not.

  21. AV – apologies for opening the Shay Given ‘can of worms’.

    Being an old head and seen the likes of how Sir Alex Ferguson dropped the likes of Massimo Taibi and Ricardo when he saw how poor they were, even Fabien Barthez tested Ferguson’s patience and was dropped, it shows that a quality keep wins points for the team. Right now if Meijas hadn’t spilled Tonge’s shot Boro would be sitting on 7 points, unbeaten and top of the league. Instead we are 8th. Yes I know we have only played 3 games and very very early days, but it’s a confidence booster to be unbeaten and top of the league.

    Hopefully Meijas comes good and proves me wrong, but I still personally believe Shay Given would be a major asset to this team both in points gained/saved by his performances and also giving confidence to the defenders in front of him.

    I have a good feeling that this season we may finally challenge for automatic promotion. Strength in depth in all departments (pending Bamford loan). God forbid anything happens to our Spanish jewel Kike, wrap that boy in cotton wool, he reminds me so much of Alan Shearer, but better 😉

    UTB – “to infinity and beyond”

    **AV writes: Can we put the Shay Given thing to bed. He’s37, he’s on £50k a week. That ship has sailed. Boro won plenty of points and kept plenty of clean sheets without him last term. Yes, he did well, he’s a lovely bloke and was a hit with the fans but we have to look forward not backward.

  22. Glad we got the three points but we made real hard work of it,thanks to David Wheater for the handball which led to our penalty equaliser and then for fouling Ayala which led to their equaliser being disallowed.

    Expected changes tonight because we have three games a week for three weeks and team needs to be rotated as everyone can’t play all nine games,with Ben and Woody injured then Hines is the only stand in,shame he obliged with his customary conceding a penalty.

    Mejias still has me worried,when the ball comes near him I get the same nervy panic that I did when Steele was in goal. Time will tell how good he is but I hope it’s not at the cost of points.

    Not a great performance but slightly better than Leeds,going to take a few games for the new players to bed in and get to know each other.

    Three points is the most important aim than entertainment,that can come later. Three games and no team has maximum points so quite happy at what we have at the moment.

  23. Will somebody tell Kike to pull his neck in, the way he’s going he’ll have his 20 goals notched by October, he might then consider the job’s jobbed and log off!

    As for Bamford, make your mind up sunshine or we move on, we may not be bigger than Chelsea, but we’re definitely bigger than you son. I’m certain that we can find another 20 goal a season man somewhere, if not double Kike’s wages and get him to score 40 instead.

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